tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105242361638428746.post3229984508102561984..comments2023-03-24T21:49:49.118-04:00Comments on Dubious Prospects: This is what I get for wanting to wait to post a book announcementGraydonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09839374676813519438noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105242361638428746.post-91093662407731055602020-01-26T20:37:43.866-05:002020-01-26T20:37:43.866-05:00Your arguments make vast amounts of sense to me, e...Your arguments make vast amounts of sense to me, except for China - the problems that will hit China won't be hitting hard for another 15-20 years, and while Putin is clearly thinking and planing on a longer time-scale than US politicians' 2-4 years, I'm not seeing much evidence of him thinking about 20+ years in the future. What I see with Putin and China is that the US is an heron61https://www.blogger.com/profile/06589549903030913452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105242361638428746.post-89961898778901067322020-01-06T11:33:38.807-05:002020-01-06T11:33:38.807-05:00+dilbert dogbert
Putin's backing the Confedera...+dilbert dogbert<br />Putin's backing the Confederacy faction. If they succeed in their goals, the US becomes aligned with Putin's aristocratic, overt-theological-control, per-enlightenment social norms faction.<br /><br />From there, a formalized condominium seems like the logical next step. The actual handling of fissionables gets close to that already, at least in principle. (E.g., Graydonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09839374676813519438noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105242361638428746.post-55521066406175553892020-01-06T10:40:28.592-05:002020-01-06T10:40:28.592-05:00MMMMM???
How does one maintain "proxy control...MMMMM???<br />How does one maintain "proxy control" of nukes past the era of one's grandchildren?<br />I guess Putin's thinking is "Après nous, le déluge"?dilbert dogberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09637308390558302302noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105242361638428746.post-724906389035681962020-01-06T07:35:03.409-05:002020-01-06T07:35:03.409-05:00+sergeyr Somewhere there's a comprehensive jus...+sergeyr Somewhere there's a comprehensive justification for the defensive necessity of controlling your national perimeter, and if you can't do that, at least make the inherently hostile -- if you don't control it, it's hostile -- nations on your border weak.<br /><br />This isn't sensible; if you really want to guarantee no one rolls tanks, you go for the Heineken Map to theGraydonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09839374676813519438noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105242361638428746.post-83912428512064801892020-01-06T03:49:16.676-05:002020-01-06T03:49:16.676-05:00Putin's defencive mindset can explain Crimea, ...Putin's defencive mindset can explain Crimea, but it cannot explain their military support of Donbass separatism; that inevitably push Ukraine onto EU/NATO, so it is not defencive action from Russian perspective at all.<br />So Putin's mindset is gangland, not defencive.sergeyrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16292339501865329670noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105242361638428746.post-1856435206059982019-12-29T14:49:46.611-05:002019-12-29T14:49:46.611-05:00Eastern Siberia is all cryosols; there was, twenty...Eastern Siberia is all cryosols; there was, twenty years ago, some hope those would transition gracefully and you could go from this remnant mammoth steppe (which does support horse-herding....) to something you could farm.<br /><br />Today we know that what happens when a cryosol melts is you get glop, flowing downhill; the active topsoil layer does not survive. So the agricultural potential ofGraydonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09839374676813519438noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105242361638428746.post-50619346718002500252019-12-29T13:19:54.895-05:002019-12-29T13:19:54.895-05:00tl/dr: Putin isn't that smart and doesn't...tl/dr: Putin isn't that smart and doesn't believe that China will attempt to annex eastern Siberia to improve their food supplies and have a place to settle their climate refugees?orchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14127551500120547348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105242361638428746.post-80269038841252594482019-12-29T00:13:41.121-05:002019-12-29T00:13:41.121-05:00No monsoons. No Himalayan glaciers feeding rivers...No monsoons. No Himalayan glaciers feeding rivers. (same thing, or two consequences of the same thing.)<br /><br />Pretty much the entire coastal industrial belt is in (at best!) the 20+ lethal heat excursion days per year zone under the best-case 2.5 C by 2100 scenario. (Same as the entire eastern US.) "Enough spare parts for tractors" stops happening; there is no way to maintain Graydonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09839374676813519438noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105242361638428746.post-1781640018873527862019-12-28T23:28:04.425-05:002019-12-28T23:28:04.425-05:00"China's completely doomed by climate cha..."China's completely doomed by climate change"<br /><br />??? China's *neighbors* might be completely doomed by climate change, but China itself?orchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14127551500120547348noreply@blogger.com