We're heading into the boreal winter with Canada, the UK, and the US seeing rates of COVID infection increasing. This is likely due to sending children back to school. American Thanksgiving, and from the sound of things UK Christmas, are going to be additional clusters of spreading events.
We know a few things about COVID-19. Dose -- how many virus particles you were exposed to -- matters to severity. Most people who get infected don't infect anybody else, but about one person in five is a super-spreader and infects many people. Aerosol spread is much, much more likely inside, if there's talking, if there's singing, and as the time spent inside increases.
With less understanding, we know you can get COVID-19 twice, and nothing says it's less severe the second time. And various learned persons have pointed out that there's no actual reason to suppose COVID-19 isn't seasonal -- worse in the winter -- just because it demonstrated greenfield spread in the summer.
My take is that this winter the ongoing or pending mass evictions due to COVID-19 related job losses are going to push people into tight quarters with inadequate sanitation at best, and that we're going to see people caught in multiple super-spreading events between forced job attendance, winter forcing people inside, and the inadequate testing to identify the infected. Exposure to multiple super-spreader events will make back-tracking or contact-tracing impractical even if the infrastructure to do it is in place (it's not), and the ability to control spread cannot now be implemented in time to prevent this. The dose increase from being caught in multiple events will push mortality and morbidity up.
Am I wrong? Hopefully.
However locked down you can get still seems only prudent through at least March.
Even if COVID-19 goes away tomorrow out of some inexplicable miraculous mercy, try to remember, next summer and the next time you vote, that this didn't have to happen; that we've got ample demonstration that a competent public sphere has several effective options for containing this disease. Try to remember that the purpose of a system is what you see it do, not what might be claimed about it. The "Western democracies", especially and particularly the English-speaking ones, are now sufficiently mammonite that they care considerably less about the health and well-being of their citizenry than traditional communist Vietnam or the dystopian autocracy of the PRC have been seen to do. (Never mind Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, or Singapore. Or New Zealand, who have apparently escaped the mammonite curse through being small and agrarian.)