23 December 2018

Worst Year Ever?

I've seen a few takes to that effect floating around already, that 2018 is the worst year ever and 2019 must be better.

This is the same mistake as thinking there can be meaningful tax cuts.

We're in for at least a century of everything about the climate getting worse; less food, more desert, less food, rising seas, less food, more displaced populations, and all the concomitant economic trouble that arises from unpredictability.  (Even leaving out the evil people, or the relentlessly fact-averse.)

2016 might well have been the last normal year.

There's a flailing moment of optimism where "well, we can react better", and yeah, we could.  We even may, but the stuff we'll have to react to gets worse from here. It's the time of angry weather and we're going to have to deal.


Kai Jones said...

I don't understand people thinking it will be better next. I don't think it will be anything but worse during the remainder of my life. The only thing that is better is my understanding of this, and my ability to make choices knowing that things will get worse.

Graydon said...

+Kai Jones
Things could get a lot better for most people, with enough structural reorganization of society. There's no compelling material reason for individuals to have bad lives, it's all down to choice of social system.

I'm not expecting that to matter, but I surely do wish to note it.

orc said...

Yeah, 2018 did away with the whole business of "next year will be better"; my 2019 wish is "no global famines, please, and if we can avoid a pandemic that would be nice."

Nick Alcock said...

2015 might have been the last normal year. 2016 was when politics in the Anglosphere veered into lunatic territory, after all...